2014年3月26日星期三

16vT: RS WTF?!

orgive the cryptic title. I couldn’t resist.  So, what does it mean?  16vT is shorthand for the player hand of sixteen against a dealer upcard of Ten.   “RS” is a strategy abbreviation.  “R” means SuRRender, and “S” means Stand.  So, “RS” means Surrender if you can, otherwise Stand.
And of course, WTF is an abbreviation of the message I often get via email when someone thinks they have found a mistake in the strategy provided by my Blackjack Basic Strategy Engine.

It’s not a mistake. And while the trick cards explanation is not rocket science, it can admittedly get a little confusing.
Let’s start by looking at the issue directly on the charts. If you visit the Strategy Engine and request a chart for a 6-deck game with No Surrender, your chart will look something like this:
Notice that if you have a hand of sixteen against a dealer Ten, the advice is “H” for Hit.
Now take a look at the chart for the same game but with rules that allow Late Surrender. (If you’re not sure what Late Surrender is, see the post Blackjack Surrender Explained.)
Now the advice for 16vT is “RS”: Surrender if you can, otherwise Stand. How can it possibly be correct to Stand here when the other chart said to Hit?
This particular decision is a very close call. In fact, one recommended extension to regular basic strategy is this: “Hit 16 vs a dealer ten, unless your hand is composed of three or more cards. In that case, stand.”
Why would you hit a 2-card 16 but stand with a 3-card 16?
Any 3-card 16 that you hold is guaranteed to include at least one small card. For example, let’s look at (Ten,2,4). That version includes two small cards. If you are hitting a 16, you would marked poker love to have either that 2 or that 4 available as the next card out of the shoe. But those cards have already been used up, and they are sitting there on the table in your hand. The 16vT is such a close call that even one extra small card missing from the shoe is enough to swing the appropriate strategy from “Hit” being the best play to “Stand” becoming the better play.
Now, let’s look at the Strategy Engine’s seemingly conflicting advice on this hand.
If you are playing a game that offers surrender, you should surrender any hard sixteen hand if the dealer is showing a ten-valued card up. So all of your two-card 16s are surrendered. What’s left? Only your multiple card 16s with 3 or more cards in the hand. And all of those hands will use up some of those key small cards that swing the best strategy for the hand.
So the Engine is quite accurate: 16vT “RS”. Surrender your 16 if you can. If you can’t (because you’ve already hit your hand at least once), then the best play is now “Stand”.
In a game where surrender is not allowed at all, the correct basic strategy is to hit 16 vs a dealer ten. If you want to gain a small extra edge you can use the more complicated rule: Hit two-card 16vT, but stand on all others.

2014年3月25日星期二

Ryan Riess to Battle Jay Farber for $8.3 Million

The first day of the 2013 WSOP Main Event final table was full of surprises -- and the two survivors are perhaps the most shocking part of all.
Jay Farber and Ryan Riess, two of the least-experienced players at the final table, will face each other tomorrow with $8.3 million, a WSOP gold bracelet and the title of world champion on the line.
Many had JC Tran pegged as the favorite to win the 2013 WSOP Main Event but the former chip leader stumbled marked cards today.
Tran made a few missteps and found himself on the rail in fifth place instead of challenging for the bracelet.
Despite the fact Riess and Farber controlled the majority of the chips by the time play got down to six-handed, play nearly ground to a halt during that stage.
When a massive cooler saw McLaughlin bust with kings to Farber’s pocket aces, that seemed to open the floodgates and Tran, Loosli and Lehovat all busted in rapid succession.
Play will resume at 5:45 p.m. tomorrow.
Here are the chip counts at the end of play:
  • Jay Farber – 105,000,000
  • Ryan Riess – 85,775,000

Video Interviews with Jay Farber and Ryan Riess

To get you primed for tomorrow's epic heads-up match we spoke with both of the final two players.
Check out Jay Farber's interview below and check back soon for the chat we had with Ryan Riess.
Level
39
Blinds
500000/1000000
Ante
150000
Average Stack
95,280,000
Players Left
2
Tables Left
1

2014年3月3日星期一

Handling Stress in the Poker Wars Part 1

Poker is: (a) A stressful game; (b) A game people play to relax; (c) Both.
I chose "(c)." Your answer will depend.
Depend on What?
What's it depend on?
On your approach to the game, the stakes you play for and your own reasons for sitting down in the first place.
Most people play for recreation. They play with friends in home games, they hit the local casino every once in a while, or fire up the old computer for an online game.
The stakes are typically low and if they lose a couple of bucks, who even notices? If they win, cool.
But increase the stakes, stir in a dollop or two of ego and stuff changes.
It's one thing to drop a couple of sawbucks to your buddies; it is a very different thing to find marked cards yourself stuck four dimes in a cutthroat $10/25 NL game with a bunch of guys with insect shades, hoodies and baleful stares.
You know, ones who look like they just walked out of an audition for a remake of Rounders.
Is there stress in these settings? Indeed.
Can it impact your play? Absolutely.
How Does Stress Affect Your Game?
IMG8395
Frustration a common cause.
 
Stress affects the body, the brain and its decision-making ability.
One of the most common causes of stress is frustration, which is experienced when: (a) goals are blocked (your last three bluffs were snapped off), (b) constant pressure is applied (your c-bet got raised for the fifth time) and (c) progress is thwarted (you missed another draw).
Enough of this and your biology goes go wonky; adrenaline levels climb, body temperature swings wildly, hypertension kicks in and thought processes head for the Port-o-John.
Unhappy outcomes at poker are ultimately unnerving and frustrating.
But do they necessarily cause stress? Do they always produce the physiological changes that impact your game?
Missing a dozen draws in a row will drive most folks' blood pressure up a couple of ticks, but not everyone's.
Some find such events merely annoying, like a buzzing fly. The stress is still there but they have different emotional reactions to it.
What's Your Emotional Experience?
In a study done some years ago, students were given a dose of adrenalin, told it was a "memory" drug and asked to wait until it took effect.
Some were left in a room with a very funny guy who told jokes, stories and clowned around. Others were put with a morose, depressive character.
When quizzed later about their experiences, the students in the first group thought the experiment was a hoot; they loved it.
Those in the other group thought it was depressing, unpleasant and reported odd side effects.
Same drug, same biological impact, different emotional experiences.
Stone-Cold Bluff: Gut Clenching or Zen Moment?
There's a take-home message here.
Brad Booth
Can you keep cool during a huge bluff?
 
Recall the last time you ran a stone-cold bluff at a big pot. Heart pounding at Indy 500 speeds, gut clenching as you wait for your opponent to make a classic lay-down.
It's a Zen moment for some - and a psychological nadir for others.
You can often see the difference by the way in which the bluffer reacts after the lay-down.
Those who handle stress well just rake in the pot; it's just part of the game.
But it isn't unusual for players who cope less well to react openly, exhale loudly, shake their heads or even laugh.
These folks experience stress far more poignantly than the others.
The Game Requires Risk
The game, by its very nature, requires that we take risks.
Risk involves stress, and we vary widely in how we manage it. Some learn to modulate it so that its impact on their marked card tricks biology and decision-making is controlled.
This group includes the solid pros whose careers have spanned decades and a few good recreational players.
Others never learn; mostly you will find them in the lower-limit games.
Still others find the adrenalin rush irresistible. They become poker's Icarus characters, the action junkies, the ones who soar for a time only to crash and burn and vanish from the stage.
You Can't Avoid It - Just Learn to Control It
If you play poker you can't avoid stress; in fact, you don't want to.
You want to understand it, control it, keep it at nonmalignant levels.
The easiest way to do this is to stay within your "comfort zone." Even the very best do this.
A few years back Andy Beal, a Dallas-based billionaire, challenged the top players in the game to go heads-up for staggering sums.
Beal, with some of the deepest pockets in the world, had a singular aim: to force the pros out of their comfort zone.
Phil Ivey
Not intimidated by Beal.
 
To counteract Beal's gambit, the pros combined bankrolls and played in rotation, thereby distributing the financial liabilities and stress among them.
Eventually, they (well, mostly Phil Ivey) sent Beal back to Texas poorer by several million.
Lest you get sidetracked by such tales, here's another surprise: money isn't the issue.
Bill Gates, one of the few on this planet with deeper pockets than Beal, is a regular player.
Gates could sit down in the biggest games in the world and nothing could dent his bankroll. He is financially inoculated against all assaults.
But he is famous around Seattle for never playing higher than $10/$20. He just doesn't feel comfortable doing so.
I doubt he knows the psychological research here, but he is doing the right thing.
He has found his comfort zone. His stress levels are kept manageable.
His decision-making will be unaffected by emotional swings and his game will thrive. Bill, of course, plays to relax.
The Practical Advice?
  1. Understand how you deal with frustration and its offspring, stress. Are you easily affected? Do modest levels, as the Brits say, "get your knickers in a twist?" If so, stick to the lower levels where there isn't as much pressure. If not, feel free to move up as your skill level improves.
  2. Discover your comfort zone where you feel at ease and don't let anyone push you out of it.
  3. Be careful not to get "addicted" to those adrenalin rushes. When they pop up, you can roll around in them like a hog in a muddy swale but don't go out of your way to find them. You'll last longer that way.